Chargers Daily Links: What happens if the Chargers draft Joe Alt (2024)

Good afternoon, Chargers fans!

I have a favorite exercise for trying to learn about the new upcoming prospects in a draft, specifically in the later rounds where some hidden gems could go be found.

When a well-respected pundit like Daniel Jeremiah suggests the Chargers might take a player like Joe Alt in the first round, it creates a fun challenge to see how the rest of the draft fall for the Bolts. Can they still find an electric playmaker at receiver to sedate the pain of missing out on Marvin Harrison Jr or Malik Nabers? Is there a tight end prospect available in Day Two or Three that can supply 80% of the production you’d get from spending premiere draft capital on elite prospect Brock Bowers?

The goal isn’t striving for accuracy, but rather just learning. We’re looking to discover “substitute goods” available in the draft marketplace, to help expand our knowledge and force us to explore the depths of the prospect pool.

With that said, here’s an early stab at what the Chargers going Tackle at #5 could lead to for the rest of the draft.

Round 1: Joe Alt, Tackle, Notre Dame

Joe Alt is seen as a not-so-sneaky pick amongst pundits, bucking the fan narrative that it should be playmaker-or-bust for the Chargers at the top of the draft order.

The strongest argument for drafting a tackle at the fifth overall spot is strictly a matter of positional value, but less in salary and more about where top tackles are drafted.

If you take the average APY from the top-ten of the wide receiver and tackle position groups, wide receiver looks like the obvious choice, as the average APY is $15.1 million in savings against the $9.4 million that will be owed to the rookie drafted at fifth overall.

Tight end would look the least-enticing, as it offers the lowest in savings.

However, the wide receivers also prove to be the position most likely to hit late. Only one of the current top-ten APY receivers was drafted in the first round. Tight ends, however, featured three players drafted in the first. Both of these position have an average draft value for their top-ten players of a mid-third round pick.

When looking at tackles, it’s pretty astonishing how few late round prospects have broken into the big money. Although the market falls out quicker for tackles, where above-average starting right tackles can be signed for as low as $5 million APY (looking at you, Morgan Moses, and the wise organization that signed you), to retain an elite tackle, you better plan on drafting him early.

Here’s what Daniel Jeremiah had to say about Alt, courtesy of Alister.

Round 2, Pick 37: Chop Robinson, EDGE, Penn State

Ryan Watkins has pointed out that Jesse Minter is going to rely on his EDGEs to take on some coverage assignments. That means Joey is either going to have to put on considerably weight and bounce inside, or he’s expendable this offseason. Khalil Mack has one year remaining on his deal, represents the most cap savings of any player if he’s moved this year, and also likely carries the highest trade value. The stars really align for the Chargers targeting an EDGE early in the draft, or in free agency.

Enter Chop Robinson. Chop is a perfect player to covet if you loved Tuli Tuipulotu’s motor last year. The first thing almost every scouting report will point out is that Chop has a relentless motor, but he also has the “chops” to execute some coverage assignments, both in dropping back to a hook/curl zone or to the flats (showing myself out now, sorry). That would prove to be a key element in a Minter defense that stresses versatility in their EDGEs in an effort to disguise some blitzes.

Round 3, Pick 69: Sedrick Van Pran, Center, Georgia

Van Pran has been available in many mocks as late as the fourth round. In other scenarios where we were lucky enough to draft the top center prospect Jackson Powers-Johnson in the first or second, the value of SVP in the fourth is too much to pass up, especially considering JPJ projects as an elite guard as well. The combination of those two rookies in a draft class would have me salivating.

However, in universe where Joe Alt was our selection, both JPJ and Zach Frazier were drafted in the first. JPJ, Frazier, and SVP are my favorite immediate-starters at the center position, so I simply couldn’t risk SVP not making it to the fourth round. Based on current projections I’m reaching a little bit here, but don’t be shocked if he’s a late climber. He’s too perfect of a scheme fit and immediate need to pass up.

TRADE: Los Angeles sends Trey Pipkins to Las Vegas for #147, 2025 6th

If you pick Joe Alt, you’re not starting him at guard, despite Jeremiah’s comments. The likelihood of that happening could go up if the Chargers target a free agent center, but forcing Alt into a position change alongside a rookie center in SVP doesn’t bode well for the Bolts.

Tom Telesco reunites with his favorite project tackle Trey Pipkins in Las Vegas, who currently have a hole at right tackle.

Round 4, Pick 106: Audric Estime, Running Back, Notre Dame

DiomedesMiura and I had a fun, quick chat about Estime in Monday’s Daily Links. Here’s a quick summation of how I feel about Audric, and why I think he’s a sneaky value in the 4th:

Estime however looks more the part of an NFL early-down and goal line back. It’s great to see that when he transitioned from receiving less than 50% of carries to being the lead back, his efficiency actually improved (5.9 yards/carry -> 6.4 yards/carry). I also don’t think he’s a liability as a pass catcher, the Irish just like their rotations and had a solid third down back in Tyree.

I haven’t fully scouted the RBs so I don’t know what the tradeoffs between him in the 4th and another guy that might be available in the 6th are yet, but I love the idea of pairing Estime with a back like Swift, who shouldn’t break the bank in a heavy FA RB class.

He’s a battering ram that has limited wear, since he only started two seasons and shouldered a very limited role in 2021. I imagine the Chargers using him similarly to the Titans when they drafted King Henry and paired him with DeMarco Murray.

Round 5: Pick 139: Zak Zinter, G, Michigan

There needs to be at least one reunion in this draft, and Harbaugh seeking out Zinter in Day 3 is a tough one to pass up.

Zak broke his tibia and fibula late in 2023, likely causing his draft stock to fall. But he was a leader for Harbaugh’s Wolverines across his three starting seasons, playing with a nasty demeanor and as a punishing run blocker.

The big question with Zinter, even beyond his injury concerns, will be his proficiency in pass protection. Michigan was so ground-heavy in their attack, that Zinter will likely need some time to refine his pass blocking. He’s an excellent candidate to come in and provide Jamaree Salyer with competition, and potentially fight for a starting spot in 2025.

Round 5, Pick 147: Dwight McGlothern, CB, Arkansas

If cornerback hasn’t been addressed by the fifth round, McGlothern is a great late-round pick that has prototypical NFL size and back-to-back years of a sub-52.0 pass rating against. In 9 games, in 2023, he only allowed 12 reception on 25 targets for 132 yards. In 13 games in 2022, he allowed 32 catches on 66 targets for 372 yards. In this time, his touchdown allowed/interception ratio was 3/7.

He has experience as a core-four special teams player. Although McGlothern shouldn’t be counted on as a replacement for Michael Davis in 2024, his production and profile suggests excellent value in the fifth round.

Round 6, Pick 183: Daijahn Anthony, S, Ole Miss

Anthony was a zero star recruit, starting his career at Shepard University before walking onto Liberty University and eventually transferring to Ole Miss. In his final season, he logged 61 total tackles, eight PBU’s, a clutch forced fumble, and three interceptions.

He’s a heavy hitting safety with a chip on his shoulder that provides some depth and competition if Alohi Gilman isn’t retained. He also provided the favorite highlight for Ole Miss fans of the 2023 season.

Round 7, Pick 223: Zakhari Franklin, WR, Ole Miss

Admittedly, I haven’t seen if Franklin has declared for the draft yet, so this may be a blown pick right off the bat. However, Franklin was projected as a top-ten receiver to enter the 2024 NFL Draft before suffering an injury in training camp.

So far there’s been a drop-off in the receivers I covet after the third round. Luke McCaffrey is a late-round flier I like, but when I chose to go with McGlothern I rolled the dice on Luke not being there, and he was picked with the final pick of the fifth round.

Here, I roll the dice on a post-hype college player returning to form after a Senior Year injury.

Round 7, Pick 256: Dallas Gant, Linebacker, Toledo

Dallas Gant is a versatile, run-stuffing linebacker that also is a plus-coverage player. We’re drafting him for his near-elite run defense and coverage grades (87.2, 83.0 respectively), but his 2.5 yards average depth of tackle is concerning. The gamble is his 6.3% missed tackle rate translates, and a talented defensive front frees him up to make those consistent tackles a little closer to the line of scrimmage. It should be noted his pass rush is his biggest weakness, according to his PFF scores.

Overall Analysis

My personal lean is for the Chargers to stack up on starting caliber skill-position players, while also finding a starting center and EDGE for 2024. I don’t hate the idea of taking a tackle early based on the research around how early the top-paid tackles are drafted, but it seems wise to trade back to gain a couple extra Day 2 picks before doing so.

The wide receiver and tight ends drop offs were significant. AJ Barner and Luke McCaffrey are my favorite late-round trade-off players, but they were drafted back to back at the end of the fifth. After that, the picking were real slim.

However, the investment in the offensive line is significant, and would be a statement-making group. If Zinter recovers from injury, it’s a line that could dominate in 2025 after turning a corner and raising its floor in 2024. I love the energy provided by putting Chop Robinson and Tuli on the defensive bookends - that pairing might feel raw at first, but the relentless motors will keep offenses on edge.

What do you all think? Are any of these players making your draft boards in these respective rounds?

And now for today’s links:

Chargers News:

Analysts are predicting Justin Herbert takes another big step under Jim Harbaugh (Chargers.com)

Justin Herbert is a top MVP candidate in 2024 (Chargers.com)

Jason Reed identifies three contracts that are hurting the Chargers (Bolt Beat)

Chargers hire Will Tukuafu as assistant defensive line coach (Chargers Wire)

NFL News:

Chargers draft Joe Alt in Daniel Jeremiah’s Mock Draft 2.0 (NFL.com)

Judy Battista predicts four NFL franchise tag candidates (NFL.com)

Garth Brooks invites Travis Kelce to sing at the opening of his new bar (The Sporting News)

Pete Prisco ranks his top-100 free agents (CBS Sports)

Chargers’ coaching staff ranked in the “promising outlook” tier by Jordan Dajani (CBS Sports)

Justin Fields unfollowed the Bears on Twitter, discusses why with the St. Brown brothers (The Sporting News)